Contenus

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  NextGen approach to hydrological forecasting: Adapting PyCPT tool for hydrological forecasting

  AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and Sahel (AGRHYMET-CCR-AOS), as part of its statutory mandate works to improve seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting capabilities by using the NextGen approach (Houngnibo et al., 2022; Ali et al.; 2022). The NextGen forecasting system helps forecasters evaluate the performance of different global climate models, which helps determine how best to correct and combine them. It also helps forecasters select the best climate models for any region of interest through process-based evaluation, and it automates the generation and verification of forecasts suitable for multiple time scales at the regional, national, or local levels (Hansen et al., 2022). Through the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project, AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre has been capacitating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in West Africa and the Sahel on NextGen seasonal forecasting systems. The capacity development efforts focus mainly on Python interface to the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) or PyCPT, a tool developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) to implement the NextGen approach to climate forecasting (Hansen et al., 2022). The continuous improvement of the PyCPT tool has recently enabled the integration of key characteristics of the rainy season such as the onset dates of the season, dry and wet sequences, and number of dry and wet days, in addition to total rainfall. While hydrological forecasts of water availability from watersheds in major river basins are essential to support operational planning and management, the latest version of PyCPT developed by IRI does not take into account the seasonal forecast of hydrological variables. A recent survey the NMHSs on the barriers to operationalization of the NextGen approach and use the PyCPT tool indicated that a key challenge limiting the operationalization and use the PyCPT tool was the lack of consideration of hydrologic parameters (Segnon et al., 2023).
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  Improving Weather Forecasts in West Africa Using WRF Model

  The lack of weather and climate information at appropriate scales is one of the major obstacles to disaster risk reduction in West Africa. The AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and its partners have undertaken to implement projects aimed at filling these gaps. It has equipped itself with the technical infrastructure and established the necessary expertise to produce Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model to provide NMHSs with information and tailored products for their operational activities. Since 2021, AGRHYMET has been equipped with a high-performance computing facility and has started implementing the WRF model to make short and medium-range forecasts. Thus, there is a need to assess the accuracy of the outputs that have been obtained so far to facilitate the improvement of the whole WRF modeling process at AGRHYMET. In this info note, we have explored the methodology used to assess WRF outputs at AGRHYMET and presented some preliminary results.
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  Improving Weather Forecasts in West Africa Using WRF Model

  The lack of weather and climate information at appropriate scales is one of the major obstacles to disaster risk reduction in West Africa. The AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and its partners have undertaken to implement projects aimed at filling these gaps. It has equipped itself with the technical infrastructure and established the necessary expertise to produce Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model to provide NMHSs with information and tailored products for their operational activities. Since 2021, AGRHYMET has been equipped with a high-performance computing facility and has started implementing the WRF model to make short and medium-range forecasts. Thus, there is a need to assess the accuracy of the outputs that have been obtained so far to facilitate the improvement of the whole WRF modeling process at AGRHYMET. In this info note, we have explored the methodology used to assess WRF outputs at AGRHYMET and presented some preliminary results.
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  Atteindre les usagers finaux avec des informations sur les prévisions saisonnières : les médias locaux à bord

  La communication des prévisions saisonnières est un maillon qui mérite d’être significativement renforcé, afin que l’information parvienne à l’usager final. L’objectif visé par cet atelier de renforcement de capacité organisé à Niamey du 27 au 29 avril 2023, qui porte sur l’interprétation et la communication des prévisions saisonnières est de répondre à cette problématique majeure. En effet, malgré la diffusion annuelle des prévisions saisonnières agro-hydro-climatiques via divers canaux, il a été relevé que le niveau des communications des prévisions reste insuffisant. Pour combler cette lacune, AGRHYMET CCR-AOS, dans le cadre du projet AICCRA, a décidé de s’investir dans le renforcement des compétences des communicateurs, des médias et des organisations des producteurs pour une meilleure interprétation et diffusion des prévisions saisonnières.
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  Expanding capacity for translating seasonal climate forecasts into actionable information for agriculture and water sectors in West Africa: Lessons learnt and way forward

  With climate change and variability posing challenges to sub-Saharan Africa’s development sectors, weather and climate information services are crucial for building climate-resilient development pathways (Hansen et al., 2022). Seasonal forecasts in particular provide prospective information about the upcoming season, with a particular focus on precipitation and temperature (Guido et al., 2020; Hansen et al., 2011). However, a direct and linear translation of the seasonal forecasts to sector-specific information such as water resources and agriculture can lead to inaccurate recommendations. Integrating seasonal forecast data into biophysical models can enable the generation of sector-relevant actionable information that can improve the decision-making (Hansen, 2005; Houngnibo et al 2023). This would contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of climate forecasts in the water and agriculture sectors, among others, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making. Regional operational meteorological centers, including AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET CCR-AOS), are regularly producing seasonal climate forecasts to help inform adaptation decision-making at various levels. As a Regional Climate Center, AGRHYMET CCR-AOS coordinates the development of consensus seasonal forecasts through Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF), which bring together experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), basin organizations, and global climate centers. AGRHYMET CCR-AOS has proposed a new approach to translate seasonal forecasts into sector-specific actionable information for agriculture and water sectors through crop and hydrological models. This is referred to as extended seasonal forecasts in agriculture and water sectors (Houngnibo et al 2023). As part of AICCRA West Africa cluster activities, AGRHYMET has capacitated NMHSs in West Africa and the Sahel on this approach as a first step towards extended and widespread uptake and utilisation in NMHSs in the region. The capacity building event took place in Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso from August 7th to 11th, 2023. The objective was to enhance the capacity of NMHSs to use new tools that combine seasonal forecasts with impact models in the agriculture and water resources sectors. This Info Note documents the process, key insights and lessons from the regional capacity building for translating seasonal forecasts into actionable information for agriculture and water sectors in West Africa for a better-informed policy and action decision making.
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  Synergies between the Food System Resilience Program (FSRP) and the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) in West Africa: Implementation domains for cross-fertilization

  The Food System Resilience Program (FSRP) and the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) are two World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA)-funded projects that include West Africa and the Sahel as intervention region. While the first phase of AICCRA is planned for 2021-2023 with a possible 5-years additional financing from 2024 (Zougmoré et al., 2023), the FSRP is a multi-phase long-term commitment program required to build sustainable regional mechanisms and institutions with sufficient substance at a regional level. This multi-phase approach will enable a set of countries with varying degrees of readiness to adopt consistent approaches and accede to regional systems at appropriately differential speeds. Phasing the accession of countries according to their readiness will allow regional mechanisms to operate with maximum effectiveness. While FSRP is aligned to the Economic Community of West Africa States Agricultural Policy (ECOWAP) as the main framework for agricultural transformation and regional integration, and implemented through three major regional organizations, i.e., Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS)’s specialized center AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center and the West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF), AICCRA builds on 50 years of CGIAR climate research innovations, especially on the achievements of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) to contribute developing a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. More specifically, AICCRA works to upscale and make climate information services and climate-smart agriculture technologies more accessible to millions of smallholder farmers across Africa. At the same time, FSRP aims to strengthen regional food system risk management, improve the sustainability of the productive base in targeted areas and to develop regional agricultural markets. In view of the complementarity between the two projects, i.e., AICCRA being a potential provider of scientifically evidence-based innovations, tools and approaches, while the FSRP is a potential user of these knowledge and information, and at the same time both are working on the common topic of supporting resilient agriculture and food systems, the World Bank has fostered active synergy between the two projects since their design phases, in a way to promote a win-win cross-fertilization. Since the commencement of FSRP implementation, clear Program of Work and Budget has been developed, with strategic areas of collaboration in a formal document that will serve as implementing guide to both projects and inform other WB operations in IDA countries and regions in Africa and beyond. This Info Note synthesizes and analyses collaboration domains for synergy and cross-fertilization between AICCRA and FSRP, with focus on the latter’s two regional components led by CILSS/AGRHYMET and CORAF.