The N’Djamena symposium in the Republic of Chad (May 2013) and the Nouakchott declaration in the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (October 2013) have given renewed interest to the livestock sector in view of its significant contribution to people’s incomes and food security. The PREDIP (Projet régional de dialogue et d’investissement pour le pastoralisme et la transhumance transfrontalière au Sahel et dans les pays côtiers de l’Afrique de l’Ouest - Regional Dialogue and Investment Project on Pastoralism and Transhumance in the Sahel and Coastal West Africa (PREDIP), along with several other regional initiatives (PRAPS, PEPISAO, etc.) was then implemented to promote and enhance mobile livestock farming. Implemented between 2018 and 2024, PREDIP covered eight (08) countries, including five (05) coastal countries (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Togo) and three (03) Sahelian countries (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), with the main approach being to target cross-border areas between the south of Sahelian countries and the north of coastal countries. These areas, which are known to have a high concentration of animals, are also known to be conflict-ridden due to the exploitation of pastoral resources shared between users. Over the five (05) years of its implementation, PREDIP has provided innovative solutions to the unique challenges of managing pastoral resources, transhumance and interactions between pastoralists and farmers in Sahelian and coastal areas. Whether in terms of improving information systems, sector governance, setting up agro-pastoral infrastructure and facilities or promoting animal health, PREDIP has made significant gains and learnt from its practices. This summary note presents the Project’s main milestones, its achievements, its positive impact, as well as the innovations and best practices that have emerged from its implementation. In view of the challenges that have been met and the results that have been achieved, this brochure also bears witness to the unwavering commitment of all those involved in the successes achieved by PREDIP.

Adoption of a governance structure and work programme PRESENTATION OF FUTURE STEPS

These agencies and their partners will provide on-demand technical assistance, advisory services, and a regional platform for cross-fertilization of what works, where, and under what enabling conditions.

This decision support note is the second to materialize the operationalization of the Observatory of Mobile Livestock Systems in West Africa and the Sahel (OSEMAOS); an information platform piloted by the AGRHYMET Regional Center of CILSS in collaboration with ECOWAS and WAEMU. It deals with the pastoral situation from June to November 2024 based on data and informations transmitted by the focal points of the countries, by the Professional Organizations of breeders, pastoralists and farmers, local and cross-borderinter-communities.

With climate change and variability posing challenges to sub-Saharan Africa’s development sectors, weather and climate information services are crucial for building climate-resilient development pathways (Hansen et al., 2022). Seasonal forecasts in particular provide prospective information about the upcoming season, with a particular focus on precipitation and temperature (Guido et al., 2020; Hansen et al., 2011). However, a direct and linear translation of the seasonal forecasts to sector-specific information such as water resources and agriculture can lead to inaccurate recommendations. Integrating seasonal forecast data into biophysical models can enable the generation of sector-relevant actionable information that can improve the decision-making (Hansen, 2005; Houngnibo et al 2023). This would contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of climate forecasts in the water and agriculture sectors, among others, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making. Regional operational meteorological centers, including AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET CCR-AOS), are regularly producing seasonal climate forecasts to help inform adaptation decision-making at various levels. As a Regional Climate Center, AGRHYMET CCR-AOS coordinates the development of consensus seasonal forecasts through Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF), which bring together experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), basin organizations, and global climate centers. AGRHYMET CCR-AOS has proposed a new approach to translate seasonal forecasts into sector-specific actionable information for agriculture and water sectors through crop and hydrological models. This is referred to as extended seasonal forecasts in agriculture and water sectors (Houngnibo et al 2023). As part of AICCRA West Africa cluster activities, AGRHYMET has capacitated NMHSs in West Africa and the Sahel on this approach as a first step towards extended and widespread uptake and utilisation in NMHSs in the region. The capacity building event took place in Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso from August 7th to 11th, 2023. The objective was to enhance the capacity of NMHSs to use new tools that combine seasonal forecasts with impact models in the agriculture and water resources sectors. This Info Note documents the process, key insights and lessons from the regional capacity building for translating seasonal forecasts into actionable information for agriculture and water sectors in West Africa for a better-informed policy and action decision making.

A generally wet 2024 rainy season is expected over the Sahelian strip, with late to average onset dates in the Central Sahel and early to average in the Western and Eastern Sahel, late to average cessationdates, short dry spells at the beginning of the season in the Western Sahel and average to long dry spells in the Eastern Sahel and overall long towards the end of the season across the entire strip Sahelian region, and overall above-average flows in the main river basins of the Sahel.

La fonction et la structure des écosystèmes forestiers sont en partie déterminées par les conditions climatiques environnantes. La distribution des précipitations et la moyenne des températures définissent le type d'écosystème forestier d’un milieu. Par conséquent, les changements climatiques influencent les forêts et partant entraîne des changements dans la production de produits et services importants pour la société. Cet article présente une brève introduction à ce sujet

The lack of weather and climate information at appropriate scales is one of the major obstacles to disaster risk reduction in West Africa. The AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and its partners have undertaken to implement projects aimed at filling these gaps. It has equipped itself with the technical infrastructure and established the necessary expertise to produce Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model to provide NMHSs with information and tailored products for their operational activities. Since 2021, AGRHYMET has been equipped with a high-performance computing facility and has started implementing the WRF model to make short and medium-range forecasts. Thus, there is a need to assess the accuracy of the outputs that have been obtained so far to facilitate the improvement of the whole WRF modeling process at AGRHYMET. In this info note, we have explored the methodology used to assess WRF outputs at AGRHYMET and presented some preliminary results.

The lack of weather and climate information at appropriate scales is one of the major obstacles to disaster risk reduction in West Africa. The AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and its partners have undertaken to implement projects aimed at filling these gaps. It has equipped itself with the technical infrastructure and established the necessary expertise to produce Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model to provide NMHSs with information and tailored products for their operational activities. Since 2021, AGRHYMET has been equipped with a high-performance computing facility and has started implementing the WRF model to make short and medium-range forecasts. Thus, there is a need to assess the accuracy of the outputs that have been obtained so far to facilitate the improvement of the whole WRF modeling process at AGRHYMET. In this info note, we have explored the methodology used to assess WRF outputs at AGRHYMET and presented some preliminary results.

Pastoralism and transhumance are livestock production practices in Africa in general and West Africa in particular. Moreover, continental, sub-regional and national organisations consider that pastoralism is useful for preserving and increasing livestock production. On the whole, this practice is faced with various difficulties, notably clashes between the different users of natural resources. In order to maintain social peace, which contributes to the promotion of regional development and integration, continental, supranational and national bodies have enacted legal texts and policy guidelines to enable pastoralists to carry out their activities in peace alongside the other economic actors. As a reminder, it can be noted that "a regulation is a legal concept that covers a set of legal instruments in the form of laws, decisions, rules and regulations, and other legal texts that frame a social and economic activity, etc. It is, in fact, about subjecting an activity to regulations”. Regulations govern activities related to the movement of people and their economic activities. To this end, the African Union, ECOWAS, UEMOA, States and communities, through legislative and regulatory measures, have laid down strong legal and institutional foundations to facilitate the movement of animals in their sub-regional and national areas. Between 1998 and 2004, ECOWAS, UEMOA and other partners adopted several legal texts and policy documents to regulate cross-border transhumance and reduce conflicts between farmers and herders, and then to protect public health, in the light of the global health environment (resurgence of animal diseases transmissible to humans). In order to control transhumance and reduce conflicts between herders and farmers, the States have adopted, since independence, laws that have been adapted to regional regulations. Despite this body of legislation, conflicts remain and the management of transhumance is still a major concern in the States and at the cross-border level. In order to contribute to better application of the regulations, the Integrated and Secure Livestock Farming and Pastoralism Project (PEPISAO), financed by the Agence française de développement (French Development Agency) (AFD) and coordinated by ECOWAS, which has delegated the implementation of Components 1 and 2 to CILSS, is working to promote the most relevant texts and also to facilitate their accessibility. The elaboration of the information directory of regulations required a process that helped to identify regulations relating to the prevention and management of pastoral conflicts with regard to the measures to be taken before going for, during and after transhumance, procedures for settling cases of field damage, natural resource management, access to resources, etc. The main regional and national texts have been compiled to extract relevant information to facilitate accessibility, better understanding and application by field actors

AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and Sahel (AGRHYMET-CCR-AOS), as part of its statutory mandate works to improve seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting capabilities by using the NextGen approach (Houngnibo et al., 2022; Ali et al.; 2022). The NextGen forecasting system helps forecasters evaluate the performance of different global climate models, which helps determine how best to correct and combine them. It also helps forecasters select the best climate models for any region of interest through process-based evaluation, and it automates the generation and verification of forecasts suitable for multiple time scales at the regional, national, or local levels (Hansen et al., 2022). Through the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project, AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre has been capacitating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in West Africa and the Sahel on NextGen seasonal forecasting systems. The capacity development efforts focus mainly on Python interface to the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) or PyCPT, a tool developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) to implement the NextGen approach to climate forecasting (Hansen et al., 2022). The continuous improvement of the PyCPT tool has recently enabled the integration of key characteristics of the rainy season such as the onset dates of the season, dry and wet sequences, and number of dry and wet days, in addition to total rainfall. While hydrological forecasts of water availability from watersheds in major river basins are essential to support operational planning and management, the latest version of PyCPT developed by IRI does not take into account the seasonal forecast of hydrological variables. A recent survey the NMHSs on the barriers to operationalization of the NextGen approach and use the PyCPT tool indicated that a key challenge limiting the operationalization and use the PyCPT tool was the lack of consideration of hydrologic parameters (Segnon et al., 2023).

For a holistic governance of the management of disaster risks caused by extreme climatic events in West Africa in the Sahel

The "Integrated and Secure Livestock Production and Pastoralism in West Africa" (PEPISAO) project is implemented by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as Project Manager, and CILSS, as Delegated Project Manager, with the financial support of the Agence française de Développement (French Development Agency) (AFD) and the technical assistance of the IRAM/ISSALA/ LARES consortium. With a duration of four years (2018-2022) and an amount of five (5) million Euros, the project covers the ECOWAS zone plus Chad and Mauritania. It has been extended at no additional cost to 31 December 2023. The project has been implemented since 2019 in a regional context marked by: (i) the deterioration of the pastoral, food and nutritional situation, (ii) the resurgence of insecurity of goods and people; (iii) the prevalence of the COVID 19 pandemic, on the one hand, and by (v) a significant increase in the number of regional projects dealing with pastoralism and (vi) a relative deterioration in the governance of cross-border transhumance, on the other hand. However, the stakeholders were able to overcome the effects of these factors through their commitment, and the project has achieved a lot. This report capitalises on the major achievements and results of four years of implementation.

For the 2025 major rainy season in the southern parts of the Gulf of Guinea countries, average to below average rainfall totals are expected in southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Côte d'Ivoire and average to above average rainfall in the southwestern parts of Nigeria, southeastern Ghana and southern Benin, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire; an early to average onset, an early to average cessation and long to average dry spell durations are expected over most of the Gulf of Guinea area; average to above average flows in the western coastal basins and above average to average flows in the eastern coastal basins.

The 2024 Edition of the PRESASS was organized from April 22 to 26, 2024 in Abuja, Nigeria, by AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center for West Africa and the Sahem (AGRHYMET RCC-WAS) of the CILSS, in collaboration with ACMAD, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO and the West African River Basin Organizations. .......Generally a wet rainy season is expected in 2024 over the Sahelian belt, with late to normal starting dates of the agricultural season in the Sahel-Central and early to normal s in the Sahel-West and East; late to normal ending dates of the agricultural season; short dry spells at the beginning of the season in the Sahel-West and medium to long dry spells in the Sahel-East and generally long dry spells towards the end of the season over the entire Sahelian belt; and above-average runoff in the main Sahelian river basins.......

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) provide decision-makers with a rigorous, evidence- and consensus-based analysis of food insecurity and acute malnutrition situations. The IPC/CH classification system enables relevant actors and stakeholders to determine and classify the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity and acute malnutrition situations in a country, according to internationally recognised scientific standards. The IPC/CH estimates of the number of food insecure and malnourished people indicate where and how many people fall in different phases of food insecurity or malnutrition by geographical areas. Several recommendations have made in recent years for the IPC/CH to provide a more nuanced narrative on who is food insecure and / or malnourished, why, where, and for how long. The IPC Global Strategic Programme (2023-2026) emphasised the need for providing “disaggregated analysis by gender and other inter-sectional determinants of vulnerability” in IPC analysis (GSP 2022, page 30); more recently the TAG meeting in Rome (16-17 February 2023) confirmed the need for conducting disaggregated IPC analysis; and similar requests were made by the CH countries in April 2018, when disaggregated gender analysis was requested. Despite these recommendations, IPC users’ views diverge on whether IPC should engage in disaggregated analysis and on the type of disaggregated analysis that would add value in different contexts. As noted by the Final Evaluation of the IPC Global Strategic Programme (2019-2022), “While some users and GSC members highlight a need for more disaggregated and gender-sensitive analysis, a significant number of respondents including GSC members also questioned the role of the IPC and the added value of more disaggregated analysis.”2 Proponents of disaggregated analysis often emphasise the humanitarian sector’s needs for disaggregated analysis, while critics question the role and added value of the IPC in providing more disaggregated population estimates, arguing that disaggregated analysis is “not the IPC’s role”, rather a process that should be carried out during the design phase of programmes. This study was conducted by the IPC in collaboration with CH. The purpose of the study is to investigate in detail whether there is a need for disaggregated analysis among different levels of decision makers and to explore the modalities of implementation that would inform decision making processes most effectively.

The Food System Resilience Program (FSRP) and the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) are two World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA)-funded projects that include West Africa and the Sahel as intervention region. While the first phase of AICCRA is planned for 2021-2023 with a possible 5-years additional financing from 2024 (Zougmoré et al., 2023), the FSRP is a multi-phase long-term commitment program required to build sustainable regional mechanisms and institutions with sufficient substance at a regional level. This multi-phase approach will enable a set of countries with varying degrees of readiness to adopt consistent approaches and accede to regional systems at appropriately differential speeds. Phasing the accession of countries according to their readiness will allow regional mechanisms to operate with maximum effectiveness. While FSRP is aligned to the Economic Community of West Africa States Agricultural Policy (ECOWAP) as the main framework for agricultural transformation and regional integration, and implemented through three major regional organizations, i.e., Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS)’s specialized center AGRHYMET Regional Climate Center and the West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF), AICCRA builds on 50 years of CGIAR climate research innovations, especially on the achievements of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) to contribute developing a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. More specifically, AICCRA works to upscale and make climate information services and climate-smart agriculture technologies more accessible to millions of smallholder farmers across Africa. At the same time, FSRP aims to strengthen regional food system risk management, improve the sustainability of the productive base in targeted areas and to develop regional agricultural markets. In view of the complementarity between the two projects, i.e., AICCRA being a potential provider of scientifically evidence-based innovations, tools and approaches, while the FSRP is a potential user of these knowledge and information, and at the same time both are working on the common topic of supporting resilient agriculture and food systems, the World Bank has fostered active synergy between the two projects since their design phases, in a way to promote a win-win cross-fertilization. Since the commencement of FSRP implementation, clear Program of Work and Budget has been developed, with strategic areas of collaboration in a formal document that will serve as implementing guide to both projects and inform other WB operations in IDA countries and regions in Africa and beyond. This Info Note synthesizes and analyses collaboration domains for synergy and cross-fertilization between AICCRA and FSRP, with focus on the latter’s two regional components led by CILSS/AGRHYMET and CORAF.